Support : eNewsletters : Eye on Innovation : Issue 2, April 2011

A power greedy world—Can innovation save the day?

Three Mile Island in the United States
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Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, Chernobyl in Russia — remembering these two nuclear disasters makes the public, politicians and nations cringe and has put a damper on nuclear power projects from the late 1970s until recently. Yet statistics indicate that nuclear power is more important than ever.

• Fourteen percent of the world's electricity production in 2009 came from nuclear power plants;
• Sixteen countries rely on nuclear energy to supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity;
• Nuclear energy provides 20 percent of the United States' electricity and is its top source of emission-free electricity; and
• The U.S. Department of Energy projects U.S. electricity demand will rise 24 percent by 2035, about one percent each year.

Source: Frost & Sullivan Market Engineering

Released under the GNU Free Documentation License

The public agrees. According to a 2010 Gallup poll, support for use of nuclear energy reached a new high of 62 percent. In addition, 28 percent of Americans said they "strongly favor" nuclear power, also the highest Gallup has measured since the question was first asked in 1994. And a poll by the Nuclear Energy Institute in 2006 indicated 80 percent of Americans believe electric utilities should prepare now to build new reactors, and 76 percent would accept a new reactor at the existing nuclear power plant closest to where they live!

It appeared freedom from oil was looking up. Then came Fukushima, Japan. The devastating 9.0 earthquake and the subsequent tsunami have led to destruction and meltdown at the Daiichi nuclear plant. While the Japanese struggle to deal with the resulting problems, the rest of the world watches and rethinks its nuclear expansion.

Will Japan’s nuclear disaster curtail future innovation in the nuclear energy industry? This issue of Eye on Innovation explores the topic of nuclear energy, its risks and benefits, changes in public opinion and predictions for the global future with nuclear energy. To find answers, we'll explore Dialog's scientific energy sources, news and business resources and its collection of environmental databases. We'll also take a look at World News Connection (WNC) to get a local and regional perspective on issues surrounding nuclear energy worldwide.

The global state of nuclear power

Turmoil in Middle Eastern oil-producing nations, increasing demand for electricity especially from Asia and the desire to decrease the global carbon footprint has required nations to modify their thinking about using nuclear power.

• Beginning in the late 1970s the United States suspended new construction on nuclear power plants. With 104 nuclear power plants in 31 states, nuclear power provides 20 percent of the United States' electricity and is its number one source of emission-free electricity. In seven states nuclear power makes up the largest percentage of the electricity they generate.
• 440 nuclear power reactors are operating in 30 countries plus Taiwan, generating about 15 percent of the world's electricity.
• More than 60 power reactors are currently being constructed in 15 countries plus Taiwan, notably China, South Korea and Russia. Nuclear power also generates 14 percent of worldwide electricity, and 16 countries rely on nuclear energy to supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity.

Source: Dialog NewsRoom, marketresearch.com

Supply and Demand

Although the world has increased its use of nuclear power, its thirst for energy is still greater than its supply. That means the United States will need hundreds of new power plants to provide electricity for its homes and continued economic growth. Based on U.S. Department of Energy forecasts, maintaining nuclear energy's current percentage would require building one reactor every year starting in 2016 or 20 to 25 new units by 2035. Concerns about rising electricity demand and clean air are among the factors driving interest in new nuclear plants. In fact, nuclear energy is one of the few bright spots in the U.S. economy — expanding rather than contracting and providing jobs as well.

Source: World News Connection, Energy Science and Technology

Joining the nuclear family

More than 45 countries are actively considering embarking upon nuclear power programs ranging from sophisticated economies to developing nations. The front runners are Iran, United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Italy, Vietnam and Jordan. These countries are in varying stages of development from power reactors under construction in Iran to a feasibility study in Jordan, to conducting site and technology selection studies as well as overseeing the design, construction, commissioning and start-up of a plant in Egypt. Whether done by outsourcing or employing local expertise, many countries are joining the nuclear family. According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) in mid-2010, 20 new countries are expected to have nuclear power on line by 2030.

Source: World News Connection, TableBase, BusinessWire, Meed Middle East Economic Digest

Factors to consider

Despite the seemingly positive outlook for nuclear energy, the risks remain critical. If countries had forgotten Chernobyl and Three Mile Island, the Japanese meltdown has made it crystal clear.

Cost

• Nuclear reactors are extremely capital-intensive to build. It is also very expensive to repair them or mothball them into retirement.

Reactor safety

• All commercial nuclear power plants contain concrete structures whose performance and function are necessary to protect the safety of plant operating personnel and the general public. These structures are designed according to codes and standards to withstand a number of low-probability external and internal events, such as earthquakes, tornadoes and loss-of-coolant accidents.
• Structures are susceptible to aging. Age-related degradation of the concrete structures may impact structural resistance and capacity, and thus reduce safety margins. All four Fukushima reactors that show trouble were old plants from the 1970s. The United States too has at least a dozen old reactors whose safety could be in question.

Environment wreckage

• Environmental monitoring requires extensive information to select new sites, and evaluate current, nuclear facilities: ecology, fate and transport, and human health. Ecological information must be evaluated including biodiversity, ecosystems, and habitats of abundant and endangered species.

Nuclear waste management

• The safe disposal of radioactive nuclear waste is currently an urgent and challenging issue. Many countries, including the United States, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland, Germany, Canada, Belgium, France, and Japan, have initiated radioactive waste management programs, which now have reached various stages.
• Experiences and research results obtained in one country may offer valuable references for another, especially for some developing countries where nuclear power is being used and/or is under development.
  • One solution, studied by the French National Radioactive Waste Management Agency (ANDRA), is underground long-term storage in high-performance concrete tunnels.
  • Another is development of cement mixtures to safely contain the nuclear waste.
  • A global collaboration with work progressing at the Idaho National Laboratory is currently developing solvent extraction separations for the nuclear fuel cycle of the future.

Whether it's development of safer containment sites for nuclear waste, replacing skilled, knowledgeable, but aging, nuclear scientists who plan to retire, transfer of knowledge to successfully decommission and build new projects or dangers such as accident risks, the stealing of sealed sources or its use by unqualified people, increased proliferation of nuclear energy presents worrisome issues.

Sources: Dialog technical databases including: Earthquake Engineering Abstracts, Pollution Abstracts, Ei Compendex, Mechanical and Transport Engineer Abstract, CSA Technology Research Database

Japan meltdown sparks global backlash

From bans on chocolate imported from Japan to fear of traces of radiation in the air off the Canadian west coast to a sellout of potassium iodide in China or Santa Fe, New Mexico, Japan's nuclear disaster has become a wake-up call to many countries whose thirst for energy seems to know no bounds.

Governments from Germany to India are reassessing their nuclear technology after Japan's March 11 earthquake and tsunami crippled a power plant and raised the threat of a meltdown.

Credit: DigitalGlobe www.digitalglobe.com

• German Prime Minister Merkel ordered a three-month shutdown of reactors built before 1980 with three being closed permanently.
• China has halted nuclear project approvals and plans safety inspections of new facilities.
• South Korea is completing a detailed safety check on its 21 reactors by late April to make certain they are able to withstand worst-case disasters. The focus will be on reactors in operation for more than 20 years.
• Chinese diplomats have called for resumption of six-party nuclear talks with North Korea.
• In Taiwan, local environmentalists and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have been pressing the government for a no-nuclear policy, starting with an immediate suspension of work on the yet-to-be completed No. 4 nuclear power plant in northern Taiwan.
• The Spanish premier ordered a safety review at nuclear power plants in Spain.
• Latvian and Lithuania worry about risk from the neighboring Belarus nuclear plant.

The Turkish government, on the other hand, indicates there is no turning back from erecting a nuclear power plant in Turkey. A U.S. Gallop Poll indicates 58 percent of Americans think U.S. nuclear power plants are safe but remain split over the need for more plants. These figures are not too different from a similar 2001 survey that found 49 percent in favor of nuclear expansion and 46 percent against it.

Source: Dialog NewsRoom, World News Connection

What's the alternative
Increasing nuclear capacity means a focus on accidents, security, waste and pollution. Right now people are scared and once again questioning nuclear energy. But, what do we have viable enough to take its place?

• Coal not only pollutes, adding to global warming, but also has its share of mine explosions, most recently in Chile and West Virginia.
• Alternative energy, such as solar and wind, needs more R&D to find sources at a reasonable cost. [See Eye on Innovation on Cleantech.] Small countries geographically, including Taiwan and United Arab Emirates, do not have the acreage for large-scale wind farms. Moreover, solar and wind may not be available 100 percent of the time in many locations.
• Natural gas seems to be a promising alternative. Vast new shale gas deposits in the U.S. and other countries, plus the possibility of liquid natural gas from places like Australia means that natural gas is ready to step up as a steady source of electricity. But, what are its environmental effects and can gas substitute for current and future energy needs?

Thoughts for the future

Today we have the technology to make completely safe nuclear plants, and they can be designed to withstand a Richter 10 earthquake, multiple tsunamis and more, but there are no engineering solutions to human error and human greed.

With the renaissance of nuclear power at stake, the atomic industry faces the challenge of persuading an increasingly skeptical public that new reactors being built, for example, by the French company Areva in Finland, France and China are not just safer than the old ones but are virtually disaster-proof. The nuclear energy industry, governments and private operators must develop an approach for nuclear energy systems that minimizes high level waste inventories while at the same time maximizing fuel utilization to provide a secure energy source. World leaders must take a hard look at a long term energy strategy to deal with barriers to nuclear energy and alternatives to it.

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